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 Upcoming Quarterly Meeting: The 2009 Indiana Forecast Breakfast has been canceled.
Past Meetings
Local Government Consolidation: The Kernan-Shepard Plan
Featured Speaker: Michael Hicks, PhD, director of the Bureau of Business at Ball State University, presented an update of the national economy and reviews local economic conditions.
Featured Presenters: Carol D'Amico, Conexus Indiana Gary J. Santoni, Ball State University Join the Executive Economic Exchange for its annual Indiana Forecast featuring Governor Mitch Daniels on property tax reform. Gary J. Santoni, Ball State University Michael J. Hicks, Ball State University There are days when it seems we are going nowhere on health care reform. We backed away from the big government solution of Hillary-care in the 1990s. Yet we remain a society that expects hospitals and emergency rooms to provide services to those who can’t pay. The costs of indigent care – like the healthcare costs for just about everyone – continue to soar beyond the ability of governments to pay for it. Changes are happening in hospitals, clinics, and administrative offices at amazing speed, as a short trip down Meridian Street in Hamilton County will immediately tell you. But are these changes for the better? Is the trajectory of the industry here and across Indianapolis sustainable? Or is there a train wreck of sorts around the corner? Michael J. Hicks, Ball State University Mark Brown, Indiana Association of Realtors Michael J. Hicks, Ball State University Robert Brody, St. Francis Health Hospital and Health Center Chuck Schalliol, Director of the Indiana Office of Management and BudgetHow would you like to steer your car down the road using only your rear view mirror as a guide? Of course, it’s foolish, not to mention dangerous. But if you are trying to steer the economy ahead, the only thing you can see clearly is what has already happened. Our ignorance about the state of the economy outside our windows right now – let alone what’s ahead in the future – is both appalling and challenging. But Executive Economic Exchange members and attendees are more informed than most – especially those who can attend our May meeting. We’ll be gathering at 7:30 AM on May 10 at the Ritz Charles in Carmel. And this time we’re giving each of you a little homework assignment to complete and return to us before you come. It’s a very simple but important little question – how’s business? We’ve all seen the recent batch of headlines about disappointing job growth in Indiana – but that’s all rear view mirror stuff. What’s really on our minds is how things look today, and how we can expect the balance of the year to shape up. That’s why we’re delighted to have EEE member Chuck Schalliol, Director of the Indiana Office of Management and Budget, join us to share his insights and perspectives on how the state – and the state’s budget – are shaping up. We all look forward to hearing from Chuck on what’s just happened in the legislature and what challenges remain to be addressed. But he needs to hear from us as well on how we’re seeing things unfolding in our businesses and organizations. That’s the spirit of the EEE, where exchanging of views and information is the key. Can you join us on May 10? Please let us know with the RSVP form. And feel free to bring (and register and pay for – sorry!) any guests you think might enjoy and contribute to the program. Featured Presenters:
Is ethanol part of a viable strategy towards achieving energy independence?Do things ever change? Some of us are old enough to remember when President Jimmy Carter dressed in a sweater and advised us all to turn our thermostats down. Fast forward ahead twenty-five years and we have President George W. Bush asking us all to use 10 percent less gasoline. Few of us like to send money to places like Venezuela or Iran, but is ethanol part of a viable strategy towards achieving energy independence? The operators and investors of the 18 different ethanol plants either planned, under construction, or in operation in Indiana certainly hope it is. But with oil prices down and corn prices up, is their money and effort now in harm’s way? Those are questions many of us are asking, and we’ve asked Andy Miller, Director of Indiana State Department of Agriculture, and Purdue Agricultural Economist Wally Tyner to join us for our first quarter Executive Economic Exchange meeting to give us their take. We’ll be getting together on Thursday, February 15, at 7:30 – 9:00 AM at the Ritz Charles in Carmel. It’s a good opportunity to take a hard look at what the challenges and opportunities for energy independence are, both locally and nationally. Thankfully the economy of today bears little resemblance to Jimmy Carter’s time – it’s a whole lot better. The national economy closed out 2006 on a very nice note, and even the housing crisis seems to have abated. We’ll be reporting on the most recent events, as well as evaluating our 2006 EEE forecast, at this meeting. Featured Presenters:
Breaking Out of Our Economic RutWhat comes to people’s minds when you mention the Midwest? Flat landscapes. Cold winters. And an underachieving economy. We’re not sure what CICP head Mark Miles can do about the first two things. But for central Indiana, especially, he’d like to change the adjective in the last sentence. But how to go about it? It’s an easier question to ask than to answer. If it were easy to fix slower earnings growth and low educational attainment it would certainly be done by now. And we know the folks who gave us Bio-Crossroads other path breaking initiatives are thinking hard about what needs doing and what doesn’t.
Will the Streak Continue in 2007?Global warming, nuclear proliferation, failing schools – the world outside our windows presents us with challenging problems. But for the American economy, at least, finding a way to grow has not been one of them. Businesses and households are still investing and placing bets on a rosier future, and for five consecutive years now, those predictions have proved accurate. But a new year brings on a new challenge and a new question – how will the U.S. economy keep this winning streak alive? The 2007 economy will have to get along without the effortless injection of cash provided by the run-up of housing prices in the first half of the decade. After using their houses like ATM machines for several years running, look for consumers to be spending within their means in the coming year now that home prices are moving in the opposite direction. That may sound to you a little like the stock market decline that presaged the 2001 recession. But few economists are making that call just yet. And that makes this year’s Executive Economic Exchange program on the outlook especially timely. Because we don’t just hear from the so-called experts on where they see things going. We hear from each of you about the signs in your businesses and your industries that can give us all a clue about where things are heading. We’ve put together an outstanding panel of business leaders to speak to us about the challenges and prospects that they see shaping the coming year for the economy for 2007 and beyond:
BitWise Solutions, Ice Miller and Katz, Sapper & Miller invite you to...Government is Broke, So What’s New?Why did Columbus set out to discover America? Why did England get cross-ways with her North American colonies? And why did Napoleon’s armies ultimately fail? The answer to all these questions is simple – their respective governments were all broke. Centuries later, governments are mostly bigger, and so are their budget problems. While the day-to-day concerns of funding operations have been eased by the improved economy, all levels of government are facing new and perplexing challenges that loom like giant train wrecks in our future if no action is taken soon. The trends in entitlement spending, debt accumulation, and tax cutting in Washington are leading to a fiscal situation that can only be called insane. The numbers are staggering. The share of Gross Domestic Product of the three largest entitlement programs – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – is projected to double in the next 40 years, to 16 percent. And the unfunded liability of Medicare alone is fully five times larger than that of Social Security. Closer to home, the state of Indiana and the city of Indianapolis continue to struggle with their own budget imbalances. As is our style, the Executive Economic Exchange – a group of Indianapolis area business executives who meet quarterly to share insights on the current and future economy – confronts this topic “head-on” in its August meeting. We’ll hear from the experts who will tell us where trends are taking us, and what options are available to implement change. We hope you can join us for breakfast at 7:30 – 9:00 AM on Thursday, August 24, at the Ritz Charles in Carmel for what promises to be a very timely and informative program. Our speakers include,
Not “If” But “When”It’s happened before, and it will happen again. The current H5N1 influenza strain that has infected birds on three continents may, or may not, produce a world-wide pandemic. And if it does, it may, or may not, happen in the next twelve months. And should that unhappy event in fact occur, it may, or may not, be as lethal as the 1918 strain that infected 30 percent of the total population and killed between 40 and 50 million people worldwide. And if that isn’t enough uncertainty for you, then consider this. The trappings of our modern culture – our advanced medical science, our improved communications, and even the remoteness accommodated by the internet may make any outbreak more manageable. Or it may not. Routine jet transport, global trade, and the higher population density of today could easily offset those advantages and make flu transmission even more efficient – and potentially deadly. So where does this leave the economy? On the 100-year anniversary of our nation’s deadliest earthquakes, and with the eight month-old legacy of our most destructive hurricane season ever still in evidence at the gas pump, there is no question that natural disasters have a direct impact on commerce and wealth. But is it a plunge into the abyss or a barely noticeable speed bump? With all the variables involved, that’s almost an impossible question to answer. But we’re all asking it nonetheless. And we’ve found a few folks who’ve agreed to get out their slide rules and their crystal balls to give us their best answer.
Real Estate and the Economic OutlookThink hot housing markets don’t matter in Indiana? Think again. Those house-flipping crazies in places like Arizona and Florida may be a world away from the more gentlemanly – some would say stagnant – buying and selling of homes in Indianapolis, but what they’re doing matters a lot more than you think. And it doesn’t matter whether you think there’s a housing market bubble or not. Thanks to our friends in the mortgage and banking industries, consumers can spend their new-found housing wealth almost as easily as they spend their paychecks, especially when low interest rates keep the refinance cauldron bubbling up new dollars. But the game can’t go on forever, and if it hasn’t ended already, it looks like it soon will. The U.S. economy ended 2005 with its weakest quarter in the last three years, with weakness in consumer spending as the main culprit. Is there a connection between the crest of housing’s big wave and the disappointing economic results? And what does this say about the rest of the year? Those topics will be front and center at our February meeting of the Executive Economic Exchange. We’ve invited the experts to dig into the situation and give us their best guesses about how much, or how little, we should be worried about the rest of the year. Closer to home, we’ve asked a few experts in commercial and residential real estate to give us their takes on the coming year as well. What exactly is it that builders see in the local market that gives them the confidence to pull the trigger on multi-million dollar projects? And is the relative affordability of Indianapolis residential real estate a blessing or a curse? Of course, we’ll also be updated on how our first EEE economic forecast is faring, and get our economic development scorecard brought up to date as well. All in all, it’s shaping up to be a busy, informative meeting. And, of course, we hope to see you there. Insight EconomyThe program will include a forecast and economic critique from Dr. Patrick Barkey, director of economic and policy studies at Ball State's Miller College of Business and regular contributor to the Indianapolis Business Journal. Dr. Barkey devotes his research and comments to the state and regional economy. Gary Santoni retired as George and Frances Ball Professor of Economics at Ball State University last spring. A keen observer of the current economy, Gary's remains active in research and consulting on financial markets and monetary policy. Who turned out the lights?It's hard to believe that only a few months ago, we were all beating down the doors of General Motors dealerships across the country and driving every big truck and SUV they had off the lot. Now many of us have parked those big beasts as the cost of a fill up is giving us a different kind of sticker shock. Will the economy shift into "park" as well? Hurricanes, spiking energy prices, and dismay over the Federal government's seemingly endless list of new spending commitments have put some of us in a pretty bad mood. But making a forecast isn't about feelings, its about facts. And most of those tell us that the U.S. economy is still in pretty decent shape. It is in such good shape, in fact, that the Federal Reserve is still busy trying to slow it down. And while we're all busy watching and reading about the dramatic natural disasters around the globe, the turning of the screws by those faceless central bankers may end up having more impact on economic performance next year than anything else. That makes the job of forecasting growth for next year especially difficult. But what else is new? It's never easy to go on record about the future. And if EEE members don't know that already, they will soon find out. That's because November is the time for our first annual forecasting meeting. As is our custom, we will be gathering to hear from the experts on where the economy is going next year. We're pleased to welcome Gary Santoni, formerly of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, and retired Ball State Distinguished Professor of Economics, to gain his insights on the national economy's prospects. And we'll be joined again by Patrick Barkey, also of Ball State, for an update on the state and region. But we're going to do more than talk about it. Each of you, individually, will be asked to put down, on paper, how you think the economy will perform in 2006. These individual forecasts will form our first, EEE, consensus forecast of the coming year. Not to mention giving a few of you something to brag about as the new year unfolds. For those of you who need details, we'll ask each of you to give us a forecast of four U.S. economic variables: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth, inflation, the unemployment rate, and 10-Year Treasury Bond yields. But don't worry -- we'll explain it all at the meeting. We want to hear how you see next year shaping up. The Economic Competition and Impact of Central Indiana's Sports ArenaOur inaugural meeting included a lively conversation and debate on
today's impact and tomorrow's forecasted future for sports in Central
Indiana. Panelists discussed the current landscape, including the
debated Colts stadium and impact of sporting events at the Indianapolis
Motor Speedway. This open forum was lead by local sports expert and
columnist Bill Benner. Speakers include:
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